(Ed. note: another flash crash of the Ethereum price took place on September 4th 2018, the editorial team has posted a fresh update at the bottom of this article)
It may sound too good to be true but InvestingHaven’s research team calculates a long term ethereum price forecast of $1000, say for 2018 and beyond.
Given our extensive background ter forecasting markets, from gold to stocks and currencies, wij could not stand against the challenge to also forecast the price of Ethereum. After our Ethereum price forecast of $550 for 2018, it wasgoed about time to apply the same forecasting method and derive a longer term price target for the price of Ethereum.
The challenge forecasting Ethereum’s price
There is one significant challenge ter attempting to forecast the price of Ethereum: there is no useful gegevens available to apply a rechtstreeks forecasting method. Stated differently, based on the limited set of relevant gegevens wij have to rely on an zijdelings forecasting method.
It may sound counterintuitive that there are hardly relevant gegevens points available.
There is of course slew of gegevens ter Ethereum space. Take, for example, Ethstats, a real gegevens hub for Ethereum statistics visualizing ongoing activity on the network, while Etherchain looks at transactions vanaf 2nd, top miners, and so on.
All that is interesting information, but not relevant te understanding the real intrinsic value of Ethereum which, essentially, is the onderstel to forecast a future price.
Moreover, ter classic markets wij are used to take a price chart and look for patterns spil a reliable way to derive a price target. Chart analysis is also not very useful ter deriving an Ethereum price forecast. The long term chart of Ethereum does not expose any form of pattern bijzonder from a parabolic rise. This pattern, however, has no visible indications which may suggest how long or how high the rally will go on.
Ethereum’s long term price chart
Ethereum price forecast: our method
Given the challenge outlined above, InvestingHaven’s research team developed a method based on classic supply/request fundamentals. Similar to any other market Ethereum is subjective to its supply and request. Our method looks to collect gegevens points which paint a picture of request, and, ter doing so, gives an indication on the intrinsic value of Ethereum.
At this ogenblik te time there are 92M coins of Ether available. Supply of Ether will become plane gegevens overheen time. For now, the supply of Ether keeps on growing, but wij will soon reach a point, most likely ter one or two years, where fresh coins will be identically created against the number of coins that go out of circulation. That is the intent of the Ether community, so wij take that spil our working assumption. So for long term forecasting the supply of Ether is not a very significant indicator, supply is certainly relevant ter the brief term but our forecasting timeframe has a long term horizon.
Two. Ether application request statistics
A very significant indicator is the usage of Ether ter decentralized applications. To us, this is the real intrinsic value of Ethereum.
Many applications are being launched and developed at this point, and wij clearly see a trend te the number of Ethereum based blockchain applications. Here again, wij lack specific gegevens, because most of those applications are private ter nature, and associated usage stats are not released.
Case ter point: The Ethereum Alliance, for example, wasgoed set up to create a “spot trade” on the foreign exchange market for global currencies using an adaptation of Ethereum spil the settlement layer. The Alliance wasgoed created by giant companies like Microsoft, JP Morga, and the likes.
Ethereum is playing a major role te applications like predictive analysis, decentralized market places, cross border payment services, digital signature ter transactions, digital rights management, crowdfunding, and many more.
One of the problems Ether solves is suggesting Wise Contracts, spil explained on Ethereum’s wiki pagina.
Ether is well on its way to become the standard te decentralized applications among cryptocurrencies, used by many giant corporations.
It is hard to calculate the request and future usage. The finance sector is where Ethereum offers major value. That sector has a ample potential. From that perspective, it is truly fair to say that Ethereum’s usage ter decentralized blockchain applications will go up 20 to 30 fold overheen the next Five to 7 years. That is not an overstatement, but rather an understatement.
Three. Ether investment request
The other request opzicht is investment driven request.
Right now, Ethereum is closed to the public. One can buy Ether spil an investment only with access through a wallet. That truly is not mainstream at this point.
Te April 2018, Grayscale launched The Ethereum Investment Trust (ETC) which is a private fund te Ethereum. It is a real success, and the chart below illustrates how investors are rushing to invest te Ethereum, with the value of ETC almost quadrupling within a month. However, it is a private fund, so not very accessible to a broader audience.
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